
The overall results
At the time of writing (11:30 a.m. on the morning after the polls), the results of the polls in Jamaica’s 17th Local Government Elections were not finalised but the current position showed that the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) had won 95 of the 228 divisions or 41.7%, while the People’s National Party (PNP) had won 103 divisions or 45.2%. Of the remaining 30 divisions, the JLP was leading in 16, while the PNP was leading in 14. In terms of a parish count, of the thirteen parish municipalities, the JLP was leading in seven, and the PNP in six with the City Municipality of Portmore won by the PNP. Thus, with little or no change expected in the direction of the 30 undecided municipalities, the JLP is likely to end the contest with 111 divisions, representing or 48.7% to the PNP’s 117 divisions or 51.3%.

Another important piece of the data is the popular vote. As at the time of writing the JLP’s share of the popular vote was 282,534, to the PNP’s 303,862 a difference of 21,328. In percentage terms this translates to 48.2% for the JLP and 51.8% for the PNP.
Another important piece of the data is the popular vote. As at the time of writing the JLP’s share of the popular vote was 282,534, to the PNP’s 303,862 a difference of 21,328. In percentage terms this translates to 48.2% for the JLP and 51.8% for the PNP.
What do these results mean?
To make sense of these results we must examine four factors, namely:
- The share of divisions held by each party heading into the elections,
- The share of the popular vote to each party in the prior (2016) elections,
- The number of municipalities held by each party heading into these (2024) elections,
- The financial capacity of each party in a context in which public expenditure is not provided to political parties to conduct campaigns and thus whose pockets were deeper.
Share of divisions
Going into the 2024 contest, the JLP had 130, or 57% of the divisions, to the PNP’s 98 or 43%. With the current standing showing the JLP having won or leading in 111 divisions, it means that the JLP has lost 19 divisions (assuming it takes all 16 in which it is leading and none of the 14 in which the PNP is leading). The loss of 19 divisions translates to a 14.6% decline. By comparison, the PNP which went into the contest with 98 divisions, has increased its share to 117 (won or leading), an improvement by the same figure of 19 (lost by the JLP), representing an expansion of 19.4%.
The difference in performance in this area cannot the overstated. The governing JLP has lost ground to the tune of 14.6%, while the PNP has gained ground by 19.4%. This translates to a 34% swing in favour of the PNP.
The difference in performance in this area cannot the overstated. The governing JLP has lost ground to the tune of 14.6%, while the PNP has gained ground by 19.4%. This translates to a 34% swing in favour of the PNP.
Share of the popular vote
In 2016, the JLP won the popular vote with 287,741 votes representing 52.3% to the PNP’s 257,830 or about 47% (with independents accounting for 0.7%). As at the current tally, after the 2024 polls, the JLP with 282,534 has lost 5,207 or a decline of just under 2%, while the PNP has moved from 257,830 to 303,862 for a gain of 46,032 or 17.85% (roughly 18%).
This gain by the PNP represents a significant shift in its electoral strength. A gain of almost 18% to your opponent’s loss of 2% places the parties in two distinct and separate worlds.
This gain by the PNP represents a significant shift in its electoral strength. A gain of almost 18% to your opponent’s loss of 2% places the parties in two distinct and separate worlds.
Number of municipalities held
The JLP entered the contest holding the municipalities of Portland, St. Mary, St. Ann, Trelawny, St. James, St. Elizabeth, Clarendon, and Kingston & St. Andrew, while the PNP held St. Thomas, St. Catherine, Manchester, Westmoreland, and Hanover, plus the city of Portmore.
When the dust settles, the PNP would have gained three (Clarendon, Kingston & St. Andrew and St. Mary) – based on the popular vote) and lost St. Thomas to end up with seven (7) parishes plus the Portmore municipality, for a total of eight (8) municipalities to the JLP’s seven (7).
In terms of overall performance, the JLP’s hold on parishes has fallen from 9 municipalities to 7 (as at now) while the PNP has risen from 5 to 8 for 8 : 6 hold on the parishes in favour of the PNP.
As at Tuesday (February 27) night, the PNP won the following seven (7) municipalities:
- Kingston and St. Andrew Municipal Council (KSAMC)
- St Catherine
- Manchester
- St Catherine
- Westmoreland
- Hanover
- St. Mary
- Portmore City Municipality (mayor)
The following seven (7) councils have gone to the JLP:
- St. James
- Trelawny
- St. Ann
- Portland
- St .Elizabeth
- St. Thomas
- Clarendon
It is instructive to note that the JLP did not improve their divisional count in any of the parishes.
In terms of overall performance, the JLP’s hold on parishes has fallen from 9 municipalities to 7 (as at now) while the PNP has risen from 5 to 8 for 8:7 in favour of the PNP. It is instructive to note that the JLP did not improve their divisional count in any of the parishes.
The big bucks
The government spent billions of dollars and outspent the opposition. That this massive spending has not produced a praiseworthy result for the governing JLP, which has seen major slippage in its popularity should tell us something about the limits of transactional politics. But I doubt it will, and what we are likely to see is even more aggressive efforts at transactional engagements.
Big wins and major upsets
There were some big wins and major upsets, largely in favour of the PNP. These include the Mocho Division (North Central Clarendon) where the former JLP councillor, Romaine Morris, joined the PNP and won for the PNP. His victory contrasts that of Venesha Phillips (an erstwhile popular PNP councillor) who crossed over to the JLP but was stopped by the PNP’s Darrington Ferguson in the Papine Division of Eastern St. Andrew. The fate was the same for Kari Douglas, daughter of the late PNP stalwart Easton Douglas, who had also joined the JLP and contested the Trafalgar Division of Southeast St. Andrew but was beaten by Jesse Clarke. However, Ian Myles and Garfield James who switched from the PNP to the JLP in Westmoreland, won their divisions; they are listed among the successful turncoats.
The upsets were seen in the following divisions won by the PNP:
- Mavis Bank, a JLP stronghold in the constituency of East Rural St. Andrew, the seat held by Juliet Holness (wife of the Prime Minister)
- Race Course and Toll Gate in Southwest Clarendon, traditional JLP strongholds.
- Gayle and Boscobel in Western St. Mary, the constituency held by the JLP Chairman, Robert Montague
- Christiana in Northeast Manchester where the JLP has dominated for several elections
- Brompton in Southwest St. Elizabeth which has tended to vote JLP, where the upcoming Floyd Green is the Member of Parliament.

Some drama
The biggest drama of the night was when veteran journalist and apparent JLP supporter Cliff Hughes, of Nationwide News Network perhaps either anxious about the outcome or pulling on his years of experience in calling elections called the elections for the PNP well before the data were definitive. The station later retracted the call. From the latest results, it appears he has been exonerated despite having withdrawn his initial position.

The second area of drama was the continuous fluctuations in the assessment of which party was ahead. It was a confusing night. This was caused, in part, by poor technical and human resource support at both the election counting centre and in the studios of some media houses. Asking analysts to add up numbers, as happened on Television Jamaica (TVJ) was untidy and tacky.
The final drama is the issue of the winner. Both parties have claimed victory. The data above speak for themselves.
What does this mean for the General Elections?
It is my view that the country is turning from the JLP to the PNP. There is, what I regard as, a myth or misunderstanding of the popularity of the JLP leader, Prime Minister Andrew Holness. The data from this Local Government Election show that his party is losing ground. But this is not the new. In 2016, when the JLP won the General Elections by one seat (32:31), the JLP won it securing 436,972 votes overall, but in 2020, when it won 49 of the 63 seats, it won almost 30,000 fewer votes coming out at 408,292 (for a precise drop of 28,680). That shedding of over 6% of votes is not consistent with being popular.
In head-to-head match ups, Andrew Holness has always come out ahead of PNP President and Opposition Leader, Mark Golding, but with the PNP gaining substantial support under Mark Golding while Holness’s support is declining, it is either the notion of a popular Holness is a myth, or his popularity is not helping him or his party.
In head-to-head match ups, Andrew Holness has always come out ahead of PNP President and Opposition Leader, Mark Golding, but with the PNP gaining substantial support under Mark Golding while Holness’s support is declining, it is either the notion of a popular Holness is a myth, or his popularity is not helping him or his party.
My assessment is that the trend of the PNP’s surge will continue, and the country will now be in a protracted General Election campaign. If opinion polls show a PNP lead, then Holness will be coming under increased pressure to call the General Elections before September 2025. At the same time, I expect that Holness will embark on a massive spending spree to gain support. I would not be surprised if he even undertakes legislative changes to ensure that his party does not lose the next General Elections.
Holness’s and his team’s unfitness
I have long argued that Holness is unfit to continue as Prime Minister. Four articles that I have published on his unfitness to lead are listed below. With his failure to attain, based on my assessment, fit and proper status, given, among other things, his uncertified financial declarations, his decline in standing among the Jamaican people makes the calling of General Elections, ahead of September 2025, the right thing to do.

Six JLP lawmakers have been under investigation for illicit enrichment. Their names are being withheld given the gag clause of the Integrity Commission Act. They should not be sitting in parliament and should step aside until their cases are determined. That the Prime Minister has shown no willingness to act on this matter is bad for Jamaica and renders him completely unfit.
My case for trustable leadership and thus my case against Prime Minister Andrew Holness
When elected leaders threaten democracy: Making sense of the Holness Administration’s attacks on the Integrity Commission
True Leaders Aspire for the Highest Standards, not the Lowest https://leadershipreimagination.com/uncategorized/true-leaders-aspire-for-the-highest-standards-not-the-lowest/
Seven reasons Andrew Holness is unfit to remain as Prime Minister
https://leadershipreimagination.com/uncategorized/unfit-prime-minister/
Canute Thompson is Professor of Educational Policy, Planning and Leadership at The University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, a social activist, and author of eight books and eighteen journal articles.
His academic achievements include:
- Two Principal’s Awards in 2023 for research activity generating the most funds, and research activity with the most development impacts, serving as Project Director for a project executed by the Caribbean Centre for Educational Planning.
- A 2022 Bronze place winner in the Independent Publisher Book Awards for his book, Education and Development: Policy Imperatives for Jamaica and the Caribbean.
- A 2021 finalist in The Vice-Chancellor’s Award for Excellence for all-round excellent performance in Outstanding Teaching, Outstanding Research Accomplishments, Outstanding Service to the University Community, Outstanding Public Service.
- A 2021 Principal’s Award for Most Outstanding Researcher.
- Two Principal’s Awards in 2020 for Most Outstanding Researcher and Best Publication for his book, Reimagining Educational Leadership in the Caribbean.
While this article is easy to read and is well put together , the following is worth noting:
1.The victory of the two former PNP councillors in Westmoreland
2.Mocco Division is not Nothern Clarendon
3.PNP victory in the Clarkes Town Division
4.JLP winning two divisions in South Manchester and none in Central Manchester
5.Brompton Division has only gone to the JLP once
Thanks your your comments Garth. Your points have been duly noted. The article has been updated to reflect that the Mocho division is North Central Clarendon.
Professor. Excellent analysis of 2024 local government early results. Thanks
Duly noted with thanks Damith.
Very straight forward analysis. Thank you.
A comparison with the voter turnout and other data of the 2020 elections could be instructive. Both party leaders accused each other of running a general election campaign and national issues were often the centre point of the campaigns.
The JLP’s decline could be even more precipitous.
An excellent analysis of the results and changing attitudes of the people towards the governing JLP
Your comment is noted with thanks Agatha.
It is a shame that in 2024 the people of Jamaica can still be bought for a bag of flour and chicken I saw this as a young man growing up in Clarendon 50yrs ago all I can say is no more crying about the problems you face you had the chance to make a big difference
Thanks for your comment Kenneth. As a nation, we do need to get beyond the limits of transactional politics.
Great job analyzing the local government election results. I do believe in the coming days, there will be much more revealing data to analyze. Presently, it is clear in my belief that both party won and lost at the same time. In my opinion, given the results of the local government elections, I believe there are two factors at play that affects both party leaders, which is Andrew Holiness integrity and on the other hand the low certainty of confidence in a Mark Golding leadership. It would appear at the outset that the people have sent a clear message to the ruling party and the opposition. This message seems to state that in the short, medium and long term, there was developmental work that was expected which was not realized, and there is more work to be done to elevate the socioeconomic status of the people of Jamaica and given the availability of greater technology, and surplus revenue, a faster pace is expected of the overall upward mobility and development of Jamaica. In closing, the shift to the PNP is extremely significant, however, the level of shift is not compelling to be certain of a Mark Golding victory in the general election. On the other hand, the decline in the support for the JLP is also extremely significant to the point where the Andrew Holness leadership is now questionable, and as a result opens the window of uncertainty leading into the General election. It will be interesting to see in the next few months prior to the general election, how both leaders will approach convincing the Jamaican people of who is better positioned and able to lead Jamaica in this new era, so let the games begin.
Thanks for engaging Mr Ashmeade.
Indeed the results of the local government elections sent very clear messages to both party leaders. Without a doubt there is need for integrity and confidence in leadership as key conditions as we endeavour to make progress as a society. The run up to the general elections will be very interesting.
AM
for Professor Thompson
Thanks for the detailed analytics Professor . I noticed however that you looked closely on the “uptown”reasoning for the swing-CORRUPTION ” , which like the government, I think you might have missed the voters pains. The bread and butter issue of spiraling food prices, basic unfulfilled promises eg. garbage collections, and most glaring of all, the audacity of calling a local government election with the mirage of deplorable roads across Jamaica .I paused to say that all government vehicles issue (including ministers)should be standard toyota corolla…thanks
Thanks for engaging Mr Butler.
As you would appreciate, not all issues can be addressed in a single article. Professor Thompson has been addressing the issue of inflation, unfulfilled promises, garbage collection etc in several previous articles as well as in dozens of posts/tweets. His handle on X (formerly Twitter) is @ThompsonCanute.
AM
for Professor Thompson